Our Matt, Aviva Canada’s first meteorologist, on nowcasting and how it could help our customers.
An hour or two from where I live, a tornado went through. A week later, I drove past and took a detour.
People were sat on their front steps, heads in hands. Doors and windows blown out, garages ripped apart, roofs lifted clean off homes. There was massive damage.
What I saw that day changed how I think about weather and its impact on people.
How we communicate weather risks is so important. How can we help people prepare for storms? How can we help them recover? How can we keep them safe?
On studying storms
Living in Canada we get all types of weather. As a kid, I built snow forts and ran around in hailstorms.
As I got older, I started studying storms much more closely. Driving around trying to find the deepest snow, the worst winds.
I've gone to America to study tornadoes. Up close, you're in awe of nature’s power. There's a big community of people who do this in Canada, but it's even bigger in in the States.
Getting close to storms isn’t for the unprepared. If you don't know how storms move, it gets dangerous fast. Knowledge is everything - predict the storm, stay out of its path.
Seeing storms first-hand taught me more than any computer model ever could. There’s a world of difference between data on a screen and the raw force of nature in front of you.
On building back better
I studied atmospheric science and meteorology. Then I was with The Weather Network for 12 years. I assessed weather risks and helped communicate those risks to the public.
Now, I’m Aviva Canada’s first meteorologist, bringing my weather knowledge to help customers.
Take Calgary. Every year, hailstorms cause massive damage in and around the city. Many homes use building materials that need repairing or replacing after every storm.
But there are better options. Materials that can withstand hail. We’re working with partners to prove the value of building back better. So, when storms hit, customers won’t face the same damage year after year.
On nowcasting
Weather forecasting tells you what’s coming days ahead. Nowcasting tells you what’s happening right now.
In Canada, nowcasting matters. We get what we call pop-up storms – fierce and fast. Forecasting predicts they’ll happen, but only nowcasting pinpoints where and when.
Think of boiling water. You know bubbles will form, but where? In the middle? Near the edge?
Pop-up storms can cause severe damage. We’re talking baseball-size hailstones. They can track hundreds of kilometres in length, but the width of their path is typically just a few kilometres. Nowcasting has the potential to let us warn customers in those exact areas.
On how nowcasting works
Weather radar sends out pulses that bounce back to detect rain, snow, wind speed - showing where weather is and where it’s heading.
Say a storm forms in the mountains and tracks towards Calgary, radar tracks it.
We might have 6- or 60-minutes’ lead time. The more time, the better – for people to protect their property. But any warning beats finding hailstone-sized holes in your car.
The weather technology exists. Our challenge is getting alerts to customers so they can act, like parking their car in a garage. If we get it right, it’ll mean less hassle for our customers and fewer claims.
On catastrophic risk
I’m working with our exposure management team. We’re assessing our catastrophic risk models’ accuracy in helping us to understand key perils for our customers in Canada.
We’re analysing the probability of storms, earthquakes, and hurricanes – and how much damage they will cause. At the same time, we’re validating that our models predict these risks reliably.
Understanding and forecasting weather risks accurately helps us price insurance fairly and get ready to support customers who need to claim. It also means we, as a business, can plan for catastrophic events.
On what’s next
Outside work, I camp, hike, ski… almost anything that comes with a sense of adventure. In Canada, if you don’t have a winter hobby, you’re stuck indoors for months, so I make the most of every season.
I’m fascinated by the extremes of weather and the power of nature. That curiosity drives me - from getting close to storm activity, to exploring the backcountry, to joining Aviva just a few months back.
Adventure is a big part of my life; I try to embrace it whenever I can. I’m excited to bring that same energy to my work and see where it takes me.
