Appendix A - Group Capital Structure


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A3 – Sensitivity analysis

The sensitivity of the Group’s shareholders’ funds on an EEV basis at 30 June 2008 to a 10% fall in global equity markets or a rise of 1% in global interest rates is as follows:

  Equities down 10%  
31 December 2007
£bn
  30 June
2008
£bn
Direct
£bn
Indirect
£bn
Interest rates up 1%
£bn
23.3 Long-term savings1 22.9 (0.4) (0.5) (0.9)
6.5 General insurance and other 5.8 (0.4) - (0.3)
(5.2) Borrowings (5.5) - - -
24.6 Shareholders’ funds 23.2 (0.8) (0.5) (1.2)

These sensitivities assume a full tax charge/credit on market value assumptions.

  1. Assumes EEV assumptions adjusted to reflect revised bond yields.
  2. Comprising internal, external and subordinated debt, net of corporate tangible net assets.

The table above incorporates the effect on the value of the pension scheme assets of a 10% decrease in equity and a 1% increase in fixed income bond yields. The latter sensitivity also assumes an equivalent movement in both inflation and discount rate (i.e. no change to real interest rates) and, therefore, incorporates the offsetting effects of these items on the pension scheme liabilities. A 1% increase in the real interest rate only has the effect of reducing the pension scheme liability by £1.5 billion thereby enhancing shareholders’ funds by £1.2 billion (after deducting tax).

Group IGD

The sensitivity of the group’s IGD surplus reflects the impact of the hedges we have put in place as part of our long-term strategy to protect the group from extreme market movements. At 30 June 2008 the sensitivity to a 10% fall in global equity markets or a rise of 1% in global interest rates is as follows:

  30 June
2008
£bn
Equities down
10%
£bn
Interest rates
up 1%
£bn
IGD Group surplus 1.8 (0.4) (0.6)

Since the period end we have put in place further protection. The sensitivity of the group’s IGD surplus to further falls in the global equity markets is as follows:

  £bn
Equities down 10% (0.4)
Equities down 20% (0.7)
Equities down 30% (1.0)
Equities down 40% (1.3)

Risk management – Equity hedges

Our risk management processes ensure close and on-going monitoring of all our capital measures. The following table shows the material equity derivatives within the Group’s shareholder funds at 30 June 2008 that are used as part of a long-term strategy to manage equity risk. It excludes derivatives used for portfolio management purposes:

Derivative Notional
£bn1
Market fall below protection level2,4 Market fall required before protection starts3,4 Outstanding Duration
Notes:
  1. The notional amount represents the market value as at 30 June 2008 of the equities covered by the hedge.
  2. The ‘Market fall below protection level’ shows the percentage the market has fallen below the protection level as at 30 June 2008. Both derivative (a) and (c) are therefore in the money at this date.
  3. The ‘Market fall required before protection starts’ shows the percentage the market would have to fall from the 30 June 2008 positions before the derivative moves into the money.
  4. The strike prices used in these calculations exclude the effect of dividends.
(a) 0.6 8% - 3 months
(b) 1.4 - 28% 9-13 months
(c) 0.4 1% - 9-21 months

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