Sensitivity analysis - economic assumptions
The tables below show the sensitivity of the embedded value as at 30 June 2005 and the new business contribution before the effect of required capital for the six months to 30 June 2005 to:
- one percentage point increase and decrease in the discount rates;
- one percentage point increase and decrease in interest rates, including all consequential changes (including assumed investment returns for all asset classes, market values of fixed interest assets, risk discount rates);
- one percentage point increase and decrease in the assumed investment returns for equity and property investments, excluding any consequential changes to the risk discount rate;
- 10% rise and fall in market value of equity and property assets (not applicable for new business contribution); and
- decrease in the level of required capital to 100% EU minimum (or equivalent) (not applicable for new business contribution).
In each sensitivity calculation, all other assumptions remain unchanged except where they are directly affected by the revised economic conditions. For example, future bonus rates are automatically adjusted to reflect sensitivity changes to future investment returns.
| Embedded value (net of tax) 30 June 2005 |
As reported in the Segmental analysis of life and related businesses embedded value £m |
1% increase in discount rates £m |
1% decrease in discount rates £m |
1% increase in interest rates £m |
1% decrease in interest rates £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 5,469 | (375) | 400 | (215) | 225 |
| Continental Europe | |||||
| France | 1,872 | (125) | 140 | (75) | 65 |
| Ireland | 595 | (25) | 25 | (30) | 30 |
| Italy | 682 | (20) | 20 | 25 | (40) |
| Netherlands (including Belgium and Luxembourg) | 2,394 | (110) | 130 | 215 | (600) |
| Poland | 506 | (30) | 30 | (5) | 5 |
| Spain | 633 | (35) | 40 | (25) | 20 |
| Other | 225 | (5) | 5 | – | (5) |
| International | 613 | (25) | 30 | (20) | – |
| 12,989 | (750) | 820 | (130) | (300) |
| Embedded value (net of tax) 30 June 2005 |
As reported in the Segmental analysis of life and related businesses embedded value £m |
1% increase in equity / property returns £m |
1% decrease in equity / property returns £m |
10% rise in equity / property market values £m |
10% fall in equity / property market values £m |
EU minimum capital (or equivalent) £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 5,469 | 200 | (215) | 360 | (360) | 160 |
| Continental Europe | ||||||
| France | 1,872 | 80 | (75) | 105 | (110) | 30 |
| Ireland | 595 | 15 | (15) | 10 | (10) | 5 |
| Italy | 682 | 10 | (10) | 10 | (10) | 10 |
| Netherlands (including Belgium and Luxembourg) | 2,394 | 270 | (305) | 310 | (330) | 85 |
| Poland | 506 | 5 | (5) | 5 | (5) | 10 |
| Spain | 633 | - | - | 5 | (5) | 5 |
| Other | 225 | 5 | (5) | 10 | (10) | 5 |
| International | 613 | 5 | (5) | 10 | (10) | 20 |
| 12,989 | 590 | (635) | 825 | (850) | 330 |
In general, the magnitude of the sensitivities will reflect the size of the embedded values, though this will vary as the sensitivities have different impacts on the different components of the embedded value. In addition, other factors can have a material impact, such as the nature of the options and guarantees, as well as the types of investments held. The interest rate sensitivity will vary significantly by territory, depending on the type of business written: for example, where non-profit business is well matched by backing assets, the favourable impact of reducing the risk discount rate is the dominant factor.
Sensitivities will also vary according to the current economic assumptions, mainly due to the impact of changes to both the intrinsic cost and time value of options and guarantees. Options and guarantees are the main reason for the asymmetry of the sensitivities where the guarantee impacts to different extents under the different scenarios. This can be seen in the sensitivity of a 1% movement in the interest rate for the Netherlands, where there is a significant amount of business with investment return guarantees. The reduction of 50 basis points to the assumed pre-tax investment returns at 30 June 2005 has significantly increased this sensitivity, reflecting the level of the guarantees relative to the interest rate assumption.
Sensitivities to a 1% movement in the equity/property return will only impact the value of the in-force covered business, whereas a 10% movement in equity/property values may impact both the net worth and the value of in-force, depending on the allocation of assets.
| New business contribution before required capital (gross of tax) 6 months to 30 June 2005 |
As reported in the New business contribution £m |
1% increase in discount rates £m |
1% decrease in discount rates £m |
1% increase in interest rates £m |
1% decrease in interest rates £m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 135 | (28) | 28 | (11) | 10 |
| Continental Europe | |||||
| France | 71 | (7) | 9 | (1) | 1 |
| Ireland | 9 | (1) | 2 | – | – |
| Italy | 33 | (1) | 1 | 1 | (2) |
| Netherlands (including Belgium and Luxembourg) | 39 | (8) | 10 | 12 | (25) |
| Poland | 5 | (1) | 1 | – | – |
| Spain | 80 | (7) | 8 | (3) | 3 |
| Other | 3 | (1) | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| International | 18 | (3) | 3 | 3 | (5) |
| 393 | (57) | 63 | 2 | (17) |
| New business contribution before required capital (gross of tax) 6 months to 30 June 2005 |
As reported in the New business contribution £m |
1% increase in equity/property returns £m |
1% decrease in equity/property returns £m |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 135 | 12 | (13) |
| Continental Europe | |||
| France | 71 | 2 | (2) |
| Ireland | 9 | 1 | (1) |
| Italy | 33 | – | – |
| Netherlands (including Belgium and Luxembourg) | 39 | 7 | (10) |
| Poland | 5 | – | – |
| Spain | 80 | – | – |
| Other | 3 | 1 | – |
| International | 18 | – | – |
| 393 | 23 | (26) |
One of the key assumptions underpinning the new business contribution is the appropriate level of required capital supporting different types of products. The effect of the assumptions relating to levels of required capital is most significant in relation to annuity business written in the UK. Aviva believes that, based on its current assessment of the risks associated with annuities, particularly in relation to longevity risk, the appropriate level of capital required to support the risks for this business is equivalent to 200% of the required minimum margins (RMM), notwithstanding the prudent margins incorporated in the technical provisions. Changing the assumption of the required capital backing annuities to 100%, increases the reported value of new business contribution reported after the effect of required capital for the six months to 30 June 2005 by £11 million and increases the embedded value by £160 million, as shown in Sensitivity analysis – economic assumptions.